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Basu's team set out to determine the growth rate of diabetes in order to predict the amount of insulin that will be needed and whether everyone who needs it will have access, said CNN.

Projection Stanford University researchers developed a microsimulation of type 2 diabetes management from 2018-2030 across 221 countries using data from the International Diabetes Federation.

The findings suggest that the total number of type 2 diabetes sufferers will increase by 20%, from 406 million in 2018 to 551 million in 2030. Their study was published Tuesday in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journal.

Insulin, however, remains costly and prices can be especially out of reach in poorer countries, where tortuous supply chains and high markups by middlemen often make it unaffordable for many patients.

"Despite the UN's commitment to treat non-communicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily hard for patients to access", said Dr Sanjay Basu, a scientist at the Stanford University and the lead author of the study, Eurekalert.org reported.




The Guardian quoted Dr Sanjay Basu from Stanford University in the United States, who led the research, as saying the current levels of insulin access are inadequate specially in Africa and Asia, requiring more efforts to overcome this shortage.

"Despite the UN's commitment to treat noncommunicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily hard for patients to access", Basu said.

Not all diabetics are, however, in need of insulin. If universal global access was achieved, 79 million people would be given insulin. This translates to a 20 per cent rise in demand for the drug, with only 38 million likely to have access to it according to current resources.

The supply of insulin will not be enough for patients with type 2 diabetes around the world by 2030, warns a new study.

The study aimed at comparing alternative projections for and consequences of insulin use worldwide under varying treatment algorithms and degrees of insulin access revealed that access to insulin in many areas is low. "Except if governments start activities to make insulin accessible and affordable, at that point its utilization is continually going to be a long way from optimal".


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