Falih said that recent production outages in Venezuela, Libya, and Angola have already reduced global supplies by about 1 million barrels a day.
"They may have to add production to make up for the unrest in Venezuela and the Iranian sanctions that are ahead of us, as well as the effect in China", he said.
The tentative increase is less than many market participants feared, and helped buoy oil prices back above $75 a barrel from less than $73 a barrel earlier this week.
Analysts had expected an increase of between 300,000 and 800,000 barrels per day, noting discord among members on whether to lift supply constraints at all. He said the meeting would tackle over-compliance with oil output cuts and that Iran was "very cooperative".
Both Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC producer Russian Federation are reportedly in favor of dialing back production limits imposed in 2017 to counter a global supply glut.
In the past year, many promised to prioritize spending discipline over production expansion after previously rushing to pump more oil when prices recovered.
"Our customers have spoken loudly and we must listen to them", Falih said.
There are other considerations than dollars and rubles.
"The voice of the consumer is being heard in Vienna", Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of consultant IHS Markit Ltd., said in a Bloomberg television interview. U.S. President Donald Trump has been calling publicly for the cartel to help lower prices.
Iran's Zanganeh has accused Trump of trying to politicise OPEC and said it was United States sanctions on Iran and Venezuela that had helped push up prices.
Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Iran's oil minister, stormed out of the meeting on Thursday evening.
"There was a lot of anticipation in the market that there was going to be a lot of new oil coming to market, and that isn't going to happen, at least for now", said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.
"Other energy ministers, such as Iraq's Jabbar Ali Hussein Al-Luiebi, have expressed more optimism about an agreement".
Bailey, however, said he anticipates the level of production will likely hold, because oil giants like Saudi Arabia - the de facto leader of OPEC - don't want to see prices fall. And that poses its own risks.
EUR: Eurozone PMI data for June had been generally mixed with the service reading rising to a 4-month high at 55, above forecasts, while manufacturing remained stagnant at an 18-month low of 55, which was in line with expectations as increased trade war tariff tensions continued to weigh on the manufacturing sentiment.
That reflects a one million barrel-a-day adjustment on paper to the production cuts implemented by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, the delegate said, asking not to be named because the information is private.
Brent oil prices rose 1% to 74.03 in London trading on Friday. And he thinks prices will rise anyway.
Shipping experts say an increase is just what the tanker market needs. He expects $80 crude by year end, $100 by 2020.